How We Analyze Job Exposure
Our analysis examines each occupation at the task level - not the job title level. This matters because most jobs contain a mix of tasks, some highly susceptible to AI automation and others that require distinctly human capabilities.
We don't predict job loss. We analyze task exposure. Understanding which specific tasks within your role are most - and least - vulnerable gives you actionable insights for adaptation.
Our Analysis Framework
1. Task Decomposition
We break each occupation into its core component tasks using the O*NET task database and Bureau of Labor Statistics occupational data. This gives us a granular view of what each job actually involves day-to-day.
2. AI Capability Assessment
For each task, we evaluate current AI capabilities across dimensions like language understanding, pattern recognition, code generation, image synthesis, and decision-making. We focus on what's achievable today, not speculative future capabilities.
3. Human Signal Analysis
We identify tasks requiring inherently human capabilities: emotional intelligence, physical presence, creative intuition, complex judgment in ambiguous situations, and interpersonal relationship building.
4. Exposure Calculation
Each task receives a risk score based on the balance between AI susceptibility and human-requirement factors. The overall job exposure is the weighted average of all component tasks.
What the Research Says
Our methodology aligns with findings from leading research institutions. Here's what the data shows:
Goldman Sachs (August 2025)
Research estimates that 2.5% of US jobs could be directly displaced by AI. Importantly, this doesn't account for new job creation or the productivity gains that typically accompany technological transitions.
Read the full report →Brookings Institution (January 2026)
Of the 37.1 million workers in highly AI-exposed occupations, approximately 70% have the capacity to successfully transition to other roles. However, about 6.1 million workers - primarily in clerical and administrative roles - face significant challenges due to limited savings, advanced age, or narrow skill sets.
Read the full report →McKinsey Global Institute (May 2024)
Analysis of AI deployment in Europe and the US finds that realizing AI's productivity benefits requires significant investment in human capital development alongside technology adoption. The transition period is expected to span several years.
Read the full report →Exposure Level Definitions
0-30% of tasks automatable
Occupations where most tasks require human judgment, creativity, emotional intelligence, or physical presence. AI may assist but not replace core functions. These roles typically involve complex interpersonal interactions or novel problem-solving.
30-70% of tasks automatable
Mixed occupations with significant automation potential in routine tasks, while preserving uniquely human capabilities. Workers in these roles should focus on the human-centric aspects of their work and learn to collaborate with AI tools.
70-100% of tasks automatable
Occupations with high potential for transformation, where a significant portion of tasks could be automated. However, this doesn't guarantee job loss - it suggests the role will evolve substantially, and workers should proactively develop adjacent skills.
Data Sources
- • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook
- • O*NET Online occupational task database
- • Academic research on AI capabilities from leading institutions
- • Industry reports on AI adoption and workforce trends
Coverage
Our analysis currently covers 287 occupations across major industry sectors including technology, healthcare, finance, education, creative arts, and business operations. These represent a significant portion of the US labor market.
We're continuously expanding our database and updating existing analyses as AI capabilities evolve.
Important Caveats
- ! This is not a prediction of job loss. Exposure measures automation potential, not probability of replacement.
- ! Economic and regulatory factors significantly affect how quickly - or whether - automation potential becomes reality.
- ! New jobs will be created. Every major technological transition has ultimately created more jobs than it displaced.
- ! Individual circumstances vary. Your specific skills, location, and employer situation significantly impact your actual exposure.
- ! Timeline is uncertain. While some changes may happen within years, others could take decades - or never materialize as predicted.
Our Commitment
We believe in honest, nuanced analysis rather than fear-inducing headlines. Our goal is to empower you with information that enables proactive career planning - not to spread anxiety about AI.
The jobs that thrive alongside AI will be those where workers leverage technology to amplify their uniquely human capabilities. Understanding your exposure is the first step toward positioning yourself for success.